Keguncangan pada kebenaran itu akan terjadi jika ada angsa nyari buku hegel malah dapat buku ini yang terjemahannya. To the rest of you: This book could have been a hundred pages shorter--perhaps a 20, word piece of long-form journalism. It leaves even the other books in the dust. No philosopher is quoted, no idea co-opted without some flourishing tale of how they were never appreciated despite their obvious intelligence or of how they were recognized for their genius but the cold, unending march of human forgetfulness relegated them to the annals of history until someone else rediscovered the idea and NNT bought the original book at a used bookstore in some non-American city that has an air of academia to it.
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Whether you are a hard core statistician or just someone interested in statistics, this is a great book for you. Sometimes you can't predict when things happen. Menurutnya, buku yang berharga bukanlah buku yang belum kita baca, tetapi buku yang sudah kita baca. The real problem, though - the context Taleb does not appear to see, the reason the book itself is a turkey - is one of facetious style.
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Random House Trade Paperbacks. Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms Incerto. Do you have a special room in which you work and a set routine?
Other books in the series. I am sure that the failure to give this book five or six stars the possibility of a six star rating might itself be something of a Black Swan is due to my own marginal intellect.
This man is the most conceited person I think I've discovered through reading his garbage hypothesis. To the rest of you: This book could have been a hundred pages shorter--perhaps a 20, word piece of long-form journalism. This page was last edited on 8 Octoberat This is a great book.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Why do we zwan acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? The Black Swan is an intriguing title — can you give us an overview of what a black swan looks like? This author is an a-hole. View all 4 comments. You can take advantage of uncertainty if you know how to look it in the eye, and know the limits of what we understand.
To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: Apr 17, Pages.
The greater the range of possible outcomes, the more disruptive this black swan will be.
The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
He attacks the Nobel Prize in Economics because taaleb to him, the financial models created by the prizewinners that that Swedish committee has rewarded have done a great deal of harm to people's understanding of the true economic risks involved.
Give "The Black Swan" a miss. I do not believe in surrounding myself with 'yes men' in the form of books and actively seek to challenge my personal beliefs through the things I read and study. His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air vlack the subject and gloss it with some 21st century context. A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences.
The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events hlack and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read.
It leaves even the other books in the dust. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.
Maybe I will start again where I left off after reading some good books. Outside the arts, my favorite one is the emergence of the computer and the internet. Later in the book, Naseim makes one of his few cogent points I'll chalk it up to luck on his part.